Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
